Kalibri Labs' latest market intelligence underscores mounting pressure on hotel performance, particularly within the government and corporate travel, across varying hotel segments, chain classes, and locations.
A new analysis from Kalibri Labs reveals the current impact of federal funding changes and macroeconomic uncertainty on the U.S. hotel industry. The white paper, Navigating Market Turbulence: The Impact of Federal Policy Changes on U.S. Hotel Performance and Demand Outlook, dissects data from more than 35,000 hotels and reveals how federal policy decisions are reverberating through travel segments and regional markets.
Key Findings:
Trends reflect performance from January 2024–early April 2025, including actualized room nights through April 5 and 30-day future bookings as of April 4, 2025 (On-the-Books).
- U.S. hotel market shows mixed performance: Of 334 U.S. markets, 53 percent (177) saw year-to-date declines of up to -22 percent, while 47 percent (157) remained flat or improved. Total U.S. room night volume is down 1 percent year-over-year, with future bookings pacing 4 percent below 2024 levels.
- Government travel sees steep decline: 76 percent of 334 U.S. markets reported year-to-date declines in government per-diem transient room nights. Total U.S. government per-diem transient bookings are down 9 percent YTD, with future bookings 20 percent below 2024 levels.
- Washington, D.C. area reflects policy impact: The Washington, D.C. market (DC/MD/VA) posted a -20 percent year-to-date drop in government per-diem bookings and a -44 percent decline in 30-day future government per-diem bookings (as of 4/4/25).
"Federal policy is reshaping travel patterns in ways that directly impact business planning and hotel profitability," Cindy Estis Green, co-founder and CEO of Kalibri Labs, said in a statement. "We have always seen muted travel growth during times of economic uncertainty and the duration and extent of the disruption is not yet known. However, to navigate this evolving landscape, commercial teams need a granular, real-time view of demand. Precision—not broad targeting—will define the winners in today's hospitality market. Consumers and businesses will always return to traveling, but the short-term decisions made to manage this turbulent period are critical as they can affect long-term hotel results for years to come."
What's Next for the Industry:
With chain class disparities widening and core segments like corporate and government travel softening, hotel stakeholders must evaluate assumptions about demand resilience and profitability. Kalibri's report provides a detailed roadmap by market, segment, and rate category and updates will be available both weekly and through monthly publications.
To download the full white paper, visit https://www.kalibrilabs.com/federal-policy-and-hotel-demand